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Atletico Mitre vs San Miguel Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 19:00

Atletico Mitre

PPG 1.40 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

San Miguel

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-023.9%0-114.5%0-24.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-019.7%1-112.0%1-23.6%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.1%2-14.9%2-21.5%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.2%3-11.4%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.4% — — —

Draw 40.7% — — —

Away win 23.9% — — —

Over 2.5 25.8% — — —

Over 3.5 5.7% — — —

BTTS 43.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob43.3%

H 35% / xG 0.8-0.6 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 23.9%

#2 1–0 19.7%

#3 1–1 12.0%

#4 0–1 14.5%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Mitre0.8

San Miguel0.6

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 5.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO MITRE · PPG 1.40

SAN MIGUEL · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Mitre (H) 35.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 40.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

San Miguel (A) 23.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Mitre face San Miguel in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Mitre a 35% chance, the draw 41% and San Miguel 24%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.8 for Atletico Mitre and 0.6 for San Miguel (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Mitre are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.80 for San Miguel. This match finished 4-0.

Atletico Mitre vs San Miguel Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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