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Udinese vs Cremonese Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Regular Season - 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 18:45

Udinese

PPG 1.28 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Cremonese

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-19.1%0-23.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.7%1-112.5%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.8%2-18.6%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.9%3-13.9%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-11.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.9% 43.1% 2.32 +15.8%

Draw 26.4% 30.8% 3.25 -8.5%

Away win 23.7% 33.3% 3.00 -17.3%

Over 2.5 46.2% 50.0% 2.00 -7.6%

Over 3.5 17.4% 27.4% 3.65 -21.9%

BTTS 48.6% 55.6% 1.80 -12.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.6%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 15.7%

#3 0–0 11.5%

#4 2–0 10.8%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Udinese1.4

Cremonese0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.4%

Form & verdict PPG

UDINESE · PPG 1.28

CREMONESE · PPG 0.83

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.28) > Away POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Udinese (H) 49.9%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV +15.8%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -8.5%

Cremonese (A) 23.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -17.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Udinese face Cremonese in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Udinese a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Cremonese 24%, so Udinese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Udinese and 0.8 for Cremonese (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Udinese are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 0.83 for Cremonese. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.8%. This match finished 0-1.

Udinese vs Cremonese Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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