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Sassuolo vs Lecce Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Regular Season - 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 18:45

Sassuolo

PPG 1.61 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

Lecce

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-19.6%0-23.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.2%1-112.4%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.2%2-18.1%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.8%3-13.5%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.4% 37.6% 2.66 +31.4%

Draw 27.2% 31.7% 3.15 -8.6%

Away win 23.3% 37.9% 2.64 -23.1%

Over 2.5 46.2% 48.8% 2.05 -5.3%

Over 3.5 14.7% 27.4% 3.65 -27.8%

BTTS 48.6% 56.5% 1.77 -14.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.6%

H 49% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.2%

#2 0–0 13.2%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 2–0 11.2%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sassuolo1.3

Lecce0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 14.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SASSUOLO · PPG 1.61

LECCE · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.61) > Away POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Sassuolo (H) 49.4%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV +31.4%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -8.6%

Lecce (A) 23.3%

ODDS 2.64 · IMPLIED 37.9% EV -23.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sassuolo face Lecce in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sassuolo a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Lecce 23%, so Sassuolo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sassuolo and 0.7 for Lecce (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sassuolo are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 0.83 for Lecce. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +31.4%. This match finished 2-3.

Sassuolo vs Lecce Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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