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Cagliari vs Torino Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 18:45

Cagliari

PPG 1.22 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Torino

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 52% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-19.5%0-25.0%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.2%1-112.9%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.3%2-18.7%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.7%3-13.9%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% 43.1% 2.32 +6.0%

Draw 28.1% 33.8% 2.96 -10.1%

Away win 26.3% 30.3% 3.30 -7.9%

Over 2.5 47.6% 44.4% 2.25 +7.1%

Over 3.5 22.2% 23.8% 4.20 -4.1%

BTTS 51.6% 52.6% 1.90 -2.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.6%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.1 / U2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 9.0%

#3 1–0 12.2%

#4 2–1✓ 8.7%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cagliari1.4

Torino1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CAGLIARI · PPG 1.22

TORINO · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

52%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.22), Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Cagliari (H) 45.7%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV +6.0%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV -10.1%

Torino (A) 26.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cagliari face Torino in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cagliari a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Torino 26%, so Cagliari are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Cagliari and 1.1 for Torino (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cagliari are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 0.94 for Torino. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Cagliari vs Torino Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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