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Gimnasia Jujuy vs Temperley Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 18:30

Gimnasia Jujuy

PPG 2.67 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Temperley

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.3%0-19.3%0-22.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.4%1-111.8%1-23.6%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.3%2-17.5%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.2%3-13.2%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% 61.7% 1.62 -17.9%

Draw 28.2% 32.3% 3.10 -7.5%

Away win 21.1% 16.0% 6.25 +19.1%

Over 2.5 35.0% 37.0% 2.70 -5.5%

Over 3.5 12.2% 20.0% 5.00 -23.4%

BTTS 46.2% 40.8% 2.45 +13.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.2%

H 51% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 19.4%

#2 0–0 15.3%

#3 1–1 11.8%

#4 2–0 12.3%

#5 0–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnasia Jujuy1.3

Temperley0.6

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASIA JUJUY · PPG 2.67

TEMPERLEY · PPG 1.14

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.67) vs P(Home)=50.7%

Win probability 1X2

Gimnasia Jujuy (H) 50.7%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -17.9%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.5%

Temperley (A) 21.1%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +19.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia Jujuy face Temperley in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia Jujuy a 51% chance, the draw 28% and Temperley 21%, so Gimnasia Jujuy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Gimnasia Jujuy and 0.6 for Temperley (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia Jujuy are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 1.14 for Temperley. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Gimnasia Jujuy vs Temperley Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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