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D. Garcilaso vs Cajamarca Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura - 15 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 18:15

D. Garcilaso

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Cajamarca

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-17.8%0-24.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.7%1-112.1%1-26.8%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.3%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.2%3-14.8%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.6%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.6% 52.6% 1.90 -7.7%

Draw 25.8% 29.9% 3.35 -8.1%

Away win 25.6% 24.4% 4.10 +3.0%

Over 2.5 52.6% 50.0% 2.00 +5.2%

Over 3.5 27.8% 28.2% 3.55 -0.8%

BTTS 52.6% 55.6% 1.80 -5.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 49% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 0–0 7.0%

#5 2–0✓ 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Garcilaso1.5

Cajamarca1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.8%

Form & verdict PPG

D. GARCILASO · PPG 2.00

CAJAMARCA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=48.6%

Win probability 1X2

D. Garcilaso (H) 48.6%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -7.7%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -8.1%

Cajamarca (A) 25.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Garcilaso face Cajamarca in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Garcilaso a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Cajamarca 26%, so D. Garcilaso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for D. Garcilaso and 1.1 for Cajamarca (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Garcilaso are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Cajamarca. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.2%. This match finished 2-0.

D. Garcilaso vs Cajamarca Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions