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D. Madryn vs Ferro Carril Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 18:00

D. Madryn

PPG 2.20 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Ferro Carril

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-111.7%0-25.2%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.9%1-113.3%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.5%2-17.6%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.2%3-12.9%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 45.5% 2.20 -4.5%

Draw 30.5% 34.5% 2.90 -11.6%

Away win 26.0% 29.4% 3.40 -7.0%

Over 2.5 46.2% 38.2% 2.62 +21.0%

Over 3.5 15.0% 18.2% 5.50 -10.5%

BTTS 48.6% 47.6% 2.10 +2.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.6%

H 43% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 13.0%

#3 1–0 14.9%

#4 0–1✓ 11.7%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Madryn1.1

Ferro Carril0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 15.0%

Form & verdict PPG

D. MADRYN · PPG 2.20

FERRO CARRIL · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.20), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

D. Madryn (H) 43.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -4.5%

Draw 30.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.6%

Ferro Carril (A) 26.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Madryn face Ferro Carril in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Madryn a 43% chance, the draw 31% and Ferro Carril 26%, so D. Madryn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for D. Madryn and 0.9 for Ferro Carril (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Madryn are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 2.00 for Ferro Carril. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +21.0%. This match finished 0-1.

D. Madryn vs Ferro Carril Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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