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ADT vs Comerciantes U. Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 15 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 16:00

ADT

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Comerciantes U.

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 52% chance

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-18.4%0-24.6%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.4%1-112.4%1-26.7%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.4%2-19.1%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.1%3-14.5%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.7% 61.0% 1.64 -21.8%

Draw 26.9% 27.4% 3.65 -1.1%

Away win 25.4% 18.5% 5.40 +22.3%

Over 2.5 48.1% 50.0% 2.00 -3.8%

Over 3.5 25.5% 28.2% 3.55 -5.7%

BTTS 52.5% 52.4% 1.91 +0.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.5%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.8%

#3 1–0 11.4%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 2–0✓ 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ADT1.5

Comerciantes U.1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.1% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ADT · PPG 1.57

COMERCIANTES U. · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.57) > Away POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

ADT (H) 47.7%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -21.8%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -1.1%

Comerciantes U. (A) 25.4%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +22.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

ADT face Comerciantes U. in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ADT a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Comerciantes U. 25%, so ADT are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for ADT and 1.1 for Comerciantes U. (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ADT are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.83 for Comerciantes U.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +22.3%. This match finished 2-0.

ADT vs Comerciantes U. Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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