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Samgurali vs Spaeri Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Matchday 13 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 16:00

Samgurali

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Spaeri

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-19.6%0-26.8%0-33.2%0-4+1.6%1 1-08.6%1-112.2%1-28.7%1-34.1%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.5%2-17.8%2-25.5%2-32.6%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.3%3-13.3%3-22.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% 46.5% 2.15 -22.2%

Draw 26.6% 33.3% 3.00 -12.1%

Away win 37.2% 34.5% 2.90 +7.9%

Over 2.5 52.6% 57.1% 1.75 -8.0%

Over 3.5 28.6% 34.7% 2.88 -10.6%

BTTS 54.6% 61.7% 1.62 -11.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 21.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.6%

A 37% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 0–0✓ 6.7%

#4 2–1 7.8%

#5 0–1 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Samgurali1.3

Spaeri1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SAMGURALI · PPG 1.67

SPAERI · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Samgurali (H) 36.2%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -22.2%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.1%

Spaeri (A) 37.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Samgurali face Spaeri in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Samgurali a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Spaeri 37%, so Spaeri are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Samgurali and 1.4 for Spaeri (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Samgurali are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.40 for Spaeri. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.9%. This match finished 0-0.

Samgurali vs Spaeri Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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