Samgurali vs Spaeri Prediction & Tips

← Back to picks

Georgia - Erovnuli Liga Regular Season - 13 26 May Stadium· Tsqaltubo Sunday, May 17, 2026 16:00

Samgurali PPG 1.67

0-0 HIT CS3

Spaeri PPG 1.40

Away· +7.9% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 36.2%

Odds: 2.15 EV: -22.2%

Draw 26.6%

Odds: 3.00 EV: -12.1%

Away 37.2%

Odds: 2.90 EV: +7.9%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 52.6% Odds: 1.75 -8.0%

Over 3.5 28.6% Odds: 2.88 -10.6%

BTTS 54.6% Odds: 1.62 -11.6%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✔

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Samgurali

1.28

Spaeri

1.42

Model SuggestionBTTS -11.6% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -11.6% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+7.9%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away AVERAGE (1.40)