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Italy - Serie A logo Italy flag Italy - Serie A Regular Season - 37 New Balance Arena· Bergamo Sunday, May 17, 2026 16:00
Atalanta logo Atalanta PPG 1.83
0-1 MISS
Bologna logo Bologna PPG 1.72
Draw· +7.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value
42% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 47.3%
Odds: 1.68 EV: -20.5%
Draw 27.9%
Odds: 4.00 EV: +7.0%
Away 24.8%
Odds: 4.45 EV: +6.2%
Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 46.2% Odds: 1.62 -25.2%
Over 3.5 18.7% Odds: 2.55 -31.4%
BTTS 49.2% Odds: 1.62 -20.3%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 0-0
3rd 1-0
4th 2-0
5th 2-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Atalanta
1.31
Bologna
0.92

Model Suggestion

No Bet NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%
O2.5/Under 55%
BTTS/No 47%
Score Hit 53%
ROI -26.7%
Bet Hit 40% (10 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value
42%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.83), Away GOOD (1.72)

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