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Atalanta vs Bologna Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Regular Season - 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 16:00

Atalanta

PPG 1.83 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Bologna

PPG 1.72 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-19.9%0-24.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.1%1-113.0%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.2%2-18.5%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.0%3-13.7%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 59.5% 1.68 -20.5%

Draw 27.9% 25.0% 4.00 +7.0%

Away win 24.8% 22.5% 4.45 +6.2%

Over 2.5 46.2% 61.7% 1.62 -25.2%

Over 3.5 18.7% 39.2% 2.55 -31.4%

BTTS 49.2% 61.7% 1.62 -20.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.2%

H 47% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 10.7%

#3 1–0 14.1%

#4 2–0 9.2%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atalanta1.3

Bologna0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ATALANTA · PPG 1.83

BOLOGNA · PPG 1.72

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.83), Away GOOD (1.72)

Win probability 1X2

Atalanta (H) 47.3%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -20.5%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +7.0%

Bologna (A) 24.8%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +6.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atalanta face Bologna in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atalanta a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Bologna 25%, so Atalanta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Atalanta and 0.9 for Bologna (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atalanta are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.72 for Bologna. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +7.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Atalanta vs Bologna Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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