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Varnamo vs Norrby Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 8 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 15:00

Varnamo

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Norrby

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 56% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+13.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-15.6%0-24.1%0-32.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-07.0%1-110.1%1-27.3%1-33.5%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.3%2-19.1%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.8%3-15.5%3-24.0%3-31.9%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.7%4+-22.7%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.9% 51.3% 1.95 -4.6%

Draw 24.6% 28.2% 3.55 -7.6%

Away win 26.4% 27.8% 3.60 -3.0%

Over 2.5 61.4% 54.1% 1.85 +13.6%

Over 3.5 40.9% 32.3% 3.10 +26.8%

BTTS 59.7% 59.9% 1.67 -0.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 107 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.7%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–2✓ 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Varnamo1.8

Norrby1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.9%

Form & verdict PPG

VARNAMO · PPG 2.00

NORRBY · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

56%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=48.9%

Win probability 1X2

Varnamo (H) 48.9%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -4.6%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.6%

Norrby (A) 26.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Varnamo face Norrby in Sweden - Superettan on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Varnamo a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Norrby 26%, so Varnamo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Varnamo and 1.4 for Norrby (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Varnamo are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Norrby. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +26.8%. This match finished 2-2.

Varnamo vs Norrby Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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