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Mjallby vs Hacken Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Regular Season - 8 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 14:30

Mjallby

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Hacken

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-15.6%0-24.0%0-31.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.1%1-110.1%1-27.2%1-33.4%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-19.2%2-26.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.9%3-15.6%3-24.0%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.8%4+-22.7%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.1% 46.5% 2.15 +5.6%

Draw 24.6% 27.0% 3.70 -5.4%

Away win 26.3% 33.3% 3.00 -12.7%

Over 2.5 61.4% 57.1% 1.75 +7.4%

Over 3.5 40.7% 34.7% 2.88 +17.2%

BTTS 59.7% 62.5% 1.60 -4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 10.2%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.7%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mjallby1.8

Hacken1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MJALLBY · PPG 2.00

HACKEN · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Mjallby (H) 49.1%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +5.6%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -5.4%

Hacken (A) 26.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mjallby face Hacken in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mjallby a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Hacken 26%, so Mjallby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Mjallby and 1.4 for Hacken (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mjallby are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.67 for Hacken. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Mjallby vs Hacken Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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