← Back to picks 
Brazil - Serie A Sunday, May 17, 2026 14:00 
Santos PPG 1.75 
Coritiba PPG 1.38
Brazil - Serie A Sunday, May 17, 2026 14:00 Santos PPG 1.750-3 MISS
Coritiba PPG 1.38Away· +24.9% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Away
✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 52.6% Odds: 2.20 +15.7%
Over 3.5 27.0% Odds: 4.00 +4.8%
BTTS 52.6% Odds: 2.00 +5.2%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 0-0 ✘
3rd 2-1 ✘
4th 1-0 ✘
5th 2-0 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Santos 1.47
Coritiba 1.16
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5 +15.7% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is +15.7% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+24.9%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Away (+24.9%) — probability too low to qualify.
League Track Record ↗
Based on 63 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 49%
O2.5/Under 48%
BTTS/No 54%
Score Hit 49%
ROI 8.0%
Bet Hit 56% (27 bets)
Verdict & Form
✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
MODERATE_HOME 75%
Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.38)