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Santos vs Coritiba Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 14:00

Santos

PPG 1.75 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Coritiba

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+15.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-18.4%0-24.9%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.6%1-112.3%1-27.1%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.8%2-19.0%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.8%3-14.4%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.2%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 58.1% 1.72 -20.9%

Draw 27.3% 29.9% 3.35 -5.1%

Away win 26.7% 18.9% 5.30 +24.9%

Over 2.5 52.6% 45.5% 2.20 +15.7%

Over 3.5 27.0% 25.0% 4.00 +4.8%

BTTS 52.6% 50.0% 2.00 +5.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.6%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–0 7.2%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santos1.5

Coritiba1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTOS · PPG 1.75

CORITIBA · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Santos (H) 46.0%

ODDS 1.72 · IMPLIED 58.1% EV -20.9%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -5.1%

Coritiba (A) 26.7%

ODDS 5.30 · IMPLIED 18.9% EV +24.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santos face Coritiba in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santos a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Coritiba 27%, so Santos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Santos and 1.2 for Coritiba (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santos are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.38 for Coritiba. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +24.9%. This match finished 0-3.

Santos vs Coritiba Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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