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Zira vs Sumqayit Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Regular Season - 32 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 14:00

Zira

PPG 1.63 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sumqayit

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-19.8%0-24.7%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.4%1-113.0%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.9%2-18.6%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.9%3-13.8%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.2% 59.9% 1.67 -22.9%

Draw 28.2% 30.3% 3.30 -4.2%

Away win 25.6% 20.0% 5.00 +16.8%

Over 2.5 46.3% 46.5% 2.15 -0.4%

Over 3.5 19.9% 26.0% 3.85 -14.0%

BTTS 51.6% 51.3% 1.95 +0.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 23.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 46% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 10.1%

#3 1–0 13.4%

#4 2–0 8.9%

#5 2–1✓ 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zira1.3

Sumqayit1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ZIRA · PPG 1.63

SUMQAYIT · PPG 1.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.63) > Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

Zira (H) 46.2%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -22.9%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -4.2%

Sumqayit (A) 25.6%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zira face Sumqayit in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zira a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Sumqayit 26%, so Zira are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Zira and 1.0 for Sumqayit (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zira are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.31 for Sumqayit. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +16.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Zira vs Sumqayit Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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