Today / Ukraine - Persha Liga / Mariupol vs P. Horodenka

Mariupol vs P. Horodenka Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Regular Season - 28 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 13:00

Mariupol

PPG 1.38 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

P. Horodenka

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.7%0-111.8%0-25.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.4%1-113.3%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.7%2-17.5%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.2%3-12.8%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.2% — — —

Draw 31.5% — — —

Away win 25.3% — — —

Over 2.5 37.7% — — —

Over 3.5 14.1% — — —

BTTS 48.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.6%

H 43% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 13.7%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 1–0 15.4%

#4 0–1 11.8%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mariupol1.1

P. Horodenka0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.7% · O3.5 PROB 14.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MARIUPOL · PPG 1.38

P. HORODENKA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Mariupol (H) 43.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

P. Horodenka (A) 25.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Mariupol face P. Horodenka in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mariupol a 43% chance, the draw 32% and P. Horodenka 25%, so Mariupol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Mariupol and 0.9 for P. Horodenka (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mariupol are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.00 for P. Horodenka. This match finished 0-0.

Mariupol vs P. Horodenka Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ukraine - Persha Liga Predictions