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Kreuzlingen vs Bavois Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Regular Season - 32 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 13:00

Kreuzlingen

PPG 1.13 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bavois

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-16.3%0-26.6%0-34.6%0-4+4.0%1 1-04.2%1-18.9%1-29.3%1-36.5%1-4+5.6%2 2-03.0%2-16.2%2-26.5%2-34.6%2-4+3.9%3 3-01.4%3-12.9%3-23.1%3-32.1%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.4%4+-21.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.6% 35.7% 2.80 -11.9%

Draw 25.1% 27.0% 3.70 -4.3%

Away win 46.3% 48.8% 2.05 -5.1%

Over 2.5 63.9% 67.6% 1.48 -5.4%

Over 3.5 46.5% 45.2% 2.21 +2.8%

BTTS 59.7% 69.4% 1.44 -14.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob59.7%

A 46% / xG 1.4-2.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–2 6.6%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 1–3 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kreuzlingen1.4

Bavois2.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 46.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KREUZLINGEN · PPG 1.13

BAVOIS · PPG 1.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.13) vs Away AVERAGE (1.47)

Win probability 1X2

Kreuzlingen (H) 28.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -11.9%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -4.3%

Bavois (A) 46.3%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kreuzlingen face Bavois in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kreuzlingen a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Bavois 46%, so Bavois are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Kreuzlingen and 2.1 for Bavois (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kreuzlingen are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.47 for Bavois. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.8%. This match finished 4-1.

Kreuzlingen vs Bavois Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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