Today / Sweden - Superettan / United Nordic vs Falkenberg

United Nordic vs Falkenberg Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 8 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 13:00

United Nordic

PPG 3.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLW

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Falkenberg

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 59% chance

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+11.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.4%0-22.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-05.2%1-17.8%1-25.8%1-32.9%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.0%2-18.9%2-26.6%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.6%3-16.8%3-25.1%3-32.5%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-16.6%4+-24.9%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.2% 47.6% 2.10 +9.6%

Draw 23.2% 27.8% 3.60 -9.9%

Away win 24.6% 31.3% 3.20 -12.8%

Over 2.5 63.9% 57.1% 1.75 +11.8%

Over 3.5 52.1% 34.7% 2.88 +50.0%

BTTS 62.5% 62.5% 1.60 0.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 107 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.5%

H 52% / xG 2.3-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.8%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 3–1 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

United Nordic2.3

Falkenberg1.5

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 52.1%

Form & verdict PPG

UNITED NORDIC · PPG 3.00

FALKENBERG · PPG 1.67

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

59%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=52.2%

Win probability 1X2

United Nordic (H) 52.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +9.6%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -9.9%

Falkenberg (A) 24.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

United Nordic face Falkenberg in Sweden - Superettan on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives United Nordic a 52% chance, the draw 23% and Falkenberg 25%, so United Nordic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for United Nordic and 1.5 for Falkenberg (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, United Nordic are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.67 for Falkenberg. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +50.0%. This match finished 1-4.

United Nordic vs Falkenberg Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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