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Oster vs Ljungskile Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Regular Season - 8 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 13:00

Oster

PPG 2.33 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

Ljungskile

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.4%0-112.7%0-24.4%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.4%1-112.7%1-24.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.2%2-16.4%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.1%3-12.1%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.3% 43.5% 2.30 -0.4%

Draw 32.8% 27.8% 3.60 +18.1%

Away win 24.0% 35.7% 2.80 -19.7%

Over 2.5 35.0% 59.9% 1.67 -41.5%

Over 3.5 9.2% 37.0% 2.70 -45.1%

BTTS 46.2% 65.4% 1.53 -29.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.2%

H 43% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.4%

#2 1–0 18.4%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 0–1 12.7%

#5 2–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oster1.0

Ljungskile0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 9.2%

Form & verdict PPG

OSTER · PPG 2.33

LJUNGSKILE · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=43.3%

Win probability 1X2

Oster (H) 43.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -0.4%

Draw 32.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +18.1%

Ljungskile (A) 24.0%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -19.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oster face Ljungskile in Sweden - Superettan on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oster a 43% chance, the draw 33% and Ljungskile 24%, so Oster are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Oster and 0.7 for Ljungskile (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oster are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.33 for Ljungskile. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +18.1%. This match finished 1-4.

Oster vs Ljungskile Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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