Today / Scotland - Premiership / St. Mirren vs Dundee Utd

St. Mirren vs Dundee Utd Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Relegation Group - 38 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 13:00

St. Mirren

PPG 1.11 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Dundee Utd

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-112.2%0-27.5%0-33.1%0-4+1.2%1 1-010.7%1-113.2%1-28.1%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-05.8%2-17.1%2-24.4%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.1%3-12.6%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 45.0% 2.22 -20.8%

Draw 27.7% 28.2% 3.55 -1.0%

Away win 36.6% 33.8% 2.96 +8.3%

Over 2.5 46.7% 55.6% 1.80 -15.9%

Over 3.5 20.3% 33.3% 3.00 -23.5%

BTTS 51.6% 60.6% 1.65 -14.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.7%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob51.6%

A 37% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.2%

#2 0–0 9.9%

#3 0–1 12.2%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Mirren1.1

Dundee Utd1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. MIRREN · PPG 1.11

DUNDEE UTD · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.11), Away POOR (0.89)

Win probability 1X2

St. Mirren (H) 35.7%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -20.8%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -1.0%

Dundee Utd (A) 36.6%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV +8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Mirren face Dundee Utd in Scotland - Premiership on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Mirren a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Dundee Utd 37%, so Dundee Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for St. Mirren and 1.2 for Dundee Utd (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Mirren are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.89 for Dundee Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.3%. This match finished 1-1.

St. Mirren vs Dundee Utd Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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