Today / Scotland - Premiership / Livingston vs Kilmarnock

Livingston vs Kilmarnock Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Relegation Group · Matchday 38 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 13:00

Livingston

PPG 0.65 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLDL

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Kilmarnock

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-16.9%0-25.0%0-32.5%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.4%1-110.9%1-28.0%1-33.9%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.9%2-18.7%2-26.4%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.1%3-14.6%3-23.4%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.6%4+-21.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.5% 37.0% 2.70 +9.3%

Draw 24.8% 28.2% 3.55 -7.2%

Away win 34.7% 41.7% 2.40 -16.7%

Over 2.5 59.4% 58.8% 1.70 +1.0%

Over 3.5 36.8% 35.7% 2.80 +3.0%

BTTS 59.7% 63.7% 1.57 -6.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.7%

H 40% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 0–0 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Livingston1.6

Kilmarnock1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LIVINGSTON · PPG 0.65

KILMARNOCK · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

63%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.65), Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Livingston (H) 40.5%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +9.3%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.2%

Kilmarnock (A) 34.7%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -16.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Livingston face Kilmarnock in Scotland - Premiership on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Livingston a 41% chance, the draw 25% and Kilmarnock 35%, so Livingston are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Livingston and 1.5 for Kilmarnock (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Livingston are averaging 0.65 points per game versus 0.67 for Kilmarnock. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.3%. This match finished 1-4.

Livingston vs Kilmarnock Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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