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Dundee FC vs Aberdeen Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Relegation Group - 38 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 13:00

Dundee FC

PPG 1.56 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Aberdeen

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-19.5%0-24.8%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.6%1-112.8%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.5%2-18.7%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.9%3-13.9%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 41.7% 2.40 +10.2%

Draw 28.0% 29.0% 3.45 -2.0%

Away win 26.1% 36.5% 2.74 -17.1%

Over 2.5 47.2% 55.6% 1.80 -15.0%

Over 3.5 21.6% 33.3% 3.00 -21.1%

BTTS 51.6% 61.7% 1.62 -16.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.7%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 9.3%

#3 1–0 12.6%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dundee FC1.4

Aberdeen1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.2% · O3.5 PROB 21.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DUNDEE FC · PPG 1.56

ABERDEEN · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.56) > Away POOR (0.78)

Win probability 1X2

Dundee FC (H) 45.9%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +10.2%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -2.0%

Aberdeen (A) 26.1%

ODDS 2.74 · IMPLIED 36.5% EV -17.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dundee FC face Aberdeen in Scotland - Premiership on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dundee FC a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Aberdeen 26%, so Dundee FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Dundee FC and 1.0 for Aberdeen (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dundee FC are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.78 for Aberdeen. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.2%. This match finished 3-2.

Dundee FC vs Aberdeen Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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