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Inter Milan vs Hellas Verona Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 13:00

Inter Milan

PPG 2.44 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Hellas Verona

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLDL

// Model verdict

Home 78% chance

Model probability 70.6% vs bookmaker-implied 81.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-12.1%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.5%1-15.6%1-21.5%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.3%2-17.6%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.9%3-16.9%3-21.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-016.9%4+-19.1%4+-22.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.6% 81.3% 1.23 -13.2%

Draw 20.8% 15.4% 6.50 +21.1%

Away win 8.5% 10.2% 9.80 -10.0%

Over 2.5 61.4% 67.6% 1.48 -9.1%

Over 3.5 40.8% 45.5% 2.20 -10.2%

BTTS 48.6% 50.0% 2.00 -2.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.6%

H 71% / xG 2.7-0.5 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.3%

#2 3–0 12.9%

#3 1–0 10.5%

#4 4–0 8.8%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Inter Milan2.7

Hellas Verona0.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.8%

Form & verdict PPG

INTER MILAN · PPG 2.44

HELLAS VERONA · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

78%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.44), Away POOR (0.67) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Inter Milan (H) 70.6%

ODDS 1.23 · IMPLIED 81.3% EV -13.2%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +21.1%

Hellas Verona (A) 8.5%

ODDS 9.80 · IMPLIED 10.2% EV -10.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Inter Milan face Hellas Verona in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Inter Milan a 71% chance, the draw 21% and Hellas Verona 9%, so Inter Milan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Inter Milan and 0.5 for Hellas Verona (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Inter Milan are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 0.67 for Hellas Verona. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +21.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Inter Milan vs Hellas Verona Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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