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Hammarby vs Malmo FF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Regular Season - 8 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 12:00

Hammarby

PPG 2.50 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Malmo FF

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-12.6%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.1%1-16.9%1-22.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.7%2-19.0%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.4%3-17.9%3-23.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-011.6%4+-19.8%4+-24.2%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.1% 63.7% 1.57 +0.6%

Draw 21.4% 24.4% 4.10 -7.4%

Away win 14.6% 19.6% 5.10 -15.3%

Over 2.5 63.9% 61.7% 1.62 +3.5%

Over 3.5 45.9% 38.5% 2.60 +19.3%

BTTS 52.6% 61.7% 1.62 -14.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 10.2%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 64% / xG 2.6-0.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.7%

#2 3–0 9.4%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 1–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hammarby2.6

Malmo FF0.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 45.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMMARBY · PPG 2.50

MALMO FF · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.50) > Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Hammarby (H) 64.1%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV +0.6%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -7.4%

Malmo FF (A) 14.6%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -15.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hammarby face Malmo FF in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hammarby a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Malmo FF 15%, so Hammarby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Hammarby and 0.8 for Malmo FF (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hammarby are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.75 for Malmo FF. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +19.3%. This match finished 4-1.

Hammarby vs Malmo FF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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