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Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 8 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 12:00

Brommapojkarna

PPG 0.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Kalmar

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 55% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+16.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-15.8%0-24.6%0-32.4%0-4+1.3%1 1-06.3%1-110.0%1-27.9%1-34.1%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.5%2-18.6%2-26.8%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.2%3-15.0%3-23.9%3-32.1%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.2%4+-22.5%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.3% 38.5% 2.60 +10.0%

Draw 23.0% 29.9% 3.35 -13.8%

Away win 34.7% 38.5% 2.60 -9.8%

Over 2.5 61.4% 52.6% 1.90 +16.7%

Over 3.5 42.1% 30.8% 3.25 +36.8%

BTTS 59.7% 60.6% 1.65 -1.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob59.7%

H 42% / xG 1.7-1.6 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brommapojkarna1.7

Kalmar1.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 42.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BROMMAPOJKARNA · PPG 0.50

KALMAR · PPG 0.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

55%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Brommapojkarna (H) 42.3%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +10.0%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -13.8%

Kalmar (A) 34.7%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -9.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brommapojkarna face Kalmar in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brommapojkarna a 42% chance, the draw 23% and Kalmar 35%, so Brommapojkarna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Brommapojkarna and 1.6 for Kalmar (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brommapojkarna are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 0.00 for Kalmar. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +36.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Brommapojkarna vs Kalmar Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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