Today / Patriotas vs Real Cartagena
Patriotas vs Real Cartagena Prediction
Apertura - 14 ·Monday, April 13, 2026
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
A 47% / xG 0.9-1.4 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 45%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.9% · O3.5 PROB 19.7%
Form & verdict
PATRIOTAS · PPG 1.83
REAL CARTAGENA · PPG 1.67
Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.83), Away GOOD (1.67)
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Patriotas face Real Cartagena on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Patriotas a 26% chance, the draw 28% and Real Cartagena 47%, so Real Cartagena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Patriotas and 1.4 for Real Cartagena (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Patriotas are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.67 for Real Cartagena.