Today / Bulgaria - First League / CSKA Sofia vs Levski Sofia

CSKA Sofia vs Levski Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Regular Season - 30 ·Monday, April 13, 2026

CSKA Sofia

PPG 2.36 · HOME

UPCOMING

Levski Sofia

PPG 2.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.9% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+10.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-17.8%0-25.4%0-32.4%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.5%1-111.7%1-28.0%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-18.7%2-26.0%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.2%3-14.3%3-23.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.3% 39.2% 2.55 +2.8%

Draw 24.9% 34.5% 2.90 -27.8%

Away win 34.8% 36.4% 2.75 -4.3%

Over 2.5 54.6% 42.6% 2.35 +28.3%

Over 3.5 32.3% 23.1% 4.33 +39.9%

BTTS 57.9% 52.6% 1.90 +10.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 17%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob57.9%

H 40% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–0 8.5%

#4 1–2 8.0%

#5 0–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CSKA Sofia1.5

Levski Sofia1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.6% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CSKA SOFIA · PPG 2.36

LEVSKI SOFIA · PPG 2.07

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.36), Away EXCELLENT (2.07)

Win probability 1X2

CSKA Sofia (H) 40.3%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +2.8%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -27.8%

Levski Sofia (A) 34.8%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

CSKA Sofia face Levski Sofia in Bulgaria - First League on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CSKA Sofia a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Levski Sofia 35%, so CSKA Sofia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for CSKA Sofia and 1.4 for Levski Sofia (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CSKA Sofia are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 2.07 for Levski Sofia. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +39.9%.

CSKA Sofia vs Levski Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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