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Lanus vs Banfield Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Apertura - 14 ·Monday, April 13, 2026

Lanus

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Banfield

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 90.4% vs bookmaker-implied 42.6% — a clear edge.

+112.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-10.7%0-20.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-01.8%1-12.7%1-22.0%1-31.0%1-4+0.5%2 2-03.5%2-15.2%2-23.9%2-31.9%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.5%3-16.7%3-25.0%3-32.5%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-012.1%4+-118.2%4+-213.6%4+-36.8%4+-4+3.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 79.3% 55.6% 1.80 +42.7%

Draw 10.8% 29.9% 3.35 -63.8%

Away win 9.9% 22.0% 4.55 -54.9%

Over 2.5 90.4% 42.6% 2.35 +112.4%

Over 3.5 78.4% 22.2% 4.50 +252.8%

BTTS 76.0% 47.6% 2.10 +59.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -39.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 85%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob76.0%

H 79% / xG 3.9-1.5 / O2.5 90% / BTTS 76%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 6.7%

#2 4–1 6.5%

#3 2–1 5.2%

#4 5–1 5.1%

#5 3–2 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lanus3.9

Banfield1.5

COMBINED 5.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 90.4% · O3.5 PROB 78.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LANUS · PPG 1.60

BANFIELD · PPG 0.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Lanus (H) 79.3%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +42.7%

Draw 10.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -63.8%

Banfield (A) 9.9%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV -54.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lanus face Banfield in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lanus a 79% chance, the draw 11% and Banfield 10%, so Lanus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.9 for Lanus and 1.5 for Banfield (5.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 90% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 76% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lanus are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.00 for Banfield. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +252.8%.

Lanus vs Banfield Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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