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AF Elbasani vs Partizani T. Prediction— Albania - Superliga

Monday, April 13, 2026

AF Elbasani

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Partizani T.

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-14.2%0-22.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.4%1-19.1%1-24.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.1%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.6%3-17.2%3-23.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-16.5%4+-23.5%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.4% 51.3% 1.95 +21.7%

Draw 19.8% 33.3% 3.00 -40.6%

Away win 17.8% 27.0% 3.70 -34.1%

Over 2.5 63.1% — — —

Over 3.5 41.0% — — —

BTTS 58.5% 48.8% 2.05 +19.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -61.7%

Bet Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.5%

H 62% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.9%

#2 2–0 9.1%

#3 1–1 9.1%

#4 1–0 8.4%

#5 3–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AF Elbasani2.2

Partizani T.1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 41.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AF ELBASANI · PPG 2.00

PARTIZANI T. · PPG 1.47

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.47)

Win probability 1X2

AF Elbasani (H) 62.4%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +21.7%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -40.6%

Partizani T. (A) 17.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -34.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

AF Elbasani face Partizani T. in Albania - Superliga on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AF Elbasani a 62% chance, the draw 20% and Partizani T. 18%, so AF Elbasani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for AF Elbasani and 1.1 for Partizani T. (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AF Elbasani are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.47 for Partizani T.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +21.7%.

AF Elbasani vs Partizani T. Prediction— Albania - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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