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Union Magdalena vs Inter Palmira Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Monday, April 13, 2026

Union Magdalena

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Inter Palmira

PPG 2.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 78.9% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+73.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-13.0%0-23.0%0-32.0%0-4+1.6%1 1-03.3%1-16.6%1-26.6%1-34.4%1-4+3.5%2 2-03.6%2-17.2%2-27.3%2-34.9%2-4+3.9%3 3-02.6%3-15.3%3-25.3%3-33.5%3-4+2.8%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-14.8%4+-24.8%4+-33.2%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 52.4% 1.91 -17.1%

Draw 20.1% 32.3% 3.10 -37.7%

Away win 36.5% 25.6% 3.90 +42.4%

Over 2.5 78.9% 45.5% 2.20 +73.6%

Over 3.5 60.4% 23.8% 4.20 +153.7%

BTTS 76.9% 51.3% 1.95 +50.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob76.9%

H 43% / xG 2.2-2.0 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 77%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.3%

#2 2–1 7.2%

#3 1–2 6.6%

#4 1–1 6.6%

#5 3–2 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Magdalena2.2

Inter Palmira2.0

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.9% · O3.5 PROB 60.4%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION MAGDALENA · PPG 2.00

INTER PALMIRA · PPG 2.43

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: EXCELLENT (2.00) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.43)

Win probability 1X2

Union Magdalena (H) 43.4%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -17.1%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -37.7%

Inter Palmira (A) 36.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +42.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Magdalena face Inter Palmira in Colombia - Primera B on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Magdalena a 43% chance, the draw 20% and Inter Palmira 37%, so Union Magdalena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Union Magdalena and 2.0 for Inter Palmira (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 77% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Magdalena are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.43 for Inter Palmira. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +153.7%.

Union Magdalena vs Inter Palmira Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera B Predictions