Sarmiento vs Gimnasia Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina Monday, April 13, 2026 —

Sarmiento PPG 2.17

VS PENDING

Gimnasia PPG 1.17

Over3.5· +140.3% ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarmiento face Gimnasia in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarmiento a 63% chance, the draw 19% and Gimnasia 18%, so Sarmiento are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Sarmiento and 1.1 for Gimnasia (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarmiento are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.17 for Gimnasia. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +140.3%.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 62.6%

Odds: 2.38 EV: +49.0%

Draw 19.4%

Odds: 2.90 EV: -43.7%

Away 18.0%

Odds: 3.30 EV: -40.6%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 65.7% Odds: 2.70 +77.4%

Over 3.5 43.7% Odds: 5.50 +140.3%

BTTS 60.6% Odds: 2.15 +30.3%

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1

2nd 1-1

3rd 2-0

4th 1-0

5th 3-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Sarmiento

2.25

Gimnasia

1.13

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +77.4% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+140.3%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5/Under 62%

BTTS/No 69%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -36.4%

Bet Hit 31% (16 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=62.6%