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Sarmiento vs Gimnasia Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Monday, April 13, 2026

Sarmiento

PPG 2.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gimnasia

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.7% vs bookmaker-implied 37.0% — a clear edge.

+77.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-13.9%0-22.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.6%1-18.7%1-24.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.6%2-19.7%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.4%3-17.3%3-24.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-16.9%4+-23.9%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.6% 42.0% 2.38 +49.0%

Draw 19.4% 34.5% 2.90 -43.7%

Away win 18.0% 30.3% 3.30 -40.6%

Over 2.5 65.7% 37.0% 2.70 +77.4%

Over 3.5 43.7% 18.2% 5.50 +140.3%

BTTS 60.6% 46.5% 2.15 +30.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -39.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.6%

H 63% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.7%

#2 1–1 8.7%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 1–0 7.6%

#5 3–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sarmiento2.2

Gimnasia1.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.7% · O3.5 PROB 43.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SARMIENTO · PPG 2.17

GIMNASIA · PPG 1.17

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=62.6%

Win probability 1X2

Sarmiento (H) 62.6%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +49.0%

Draw 19.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -43.7%

Gimnasia (A) 18.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -40.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarmiento face Gimnasia in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarmiento a 63% chance, the draw 19% and Gimnasia 18%, so Sarmiento are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Sarmiento and 1.1 for Gimnasia (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarmiento are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.17 for Gimnasia. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +140.3%.

Sarmiento vs Gimnasia Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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