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Bogota vs Orsomarso Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Monday, April 13, 2026

Bogota

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Orsomarso

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-17.9%0-24.9%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.7%1-112.0%1-27.4%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.3%2-19.1%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.7%3-14.6%3-22.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% 48.8% 2.05 -10.4%

Draw 25.3% 32.3% 3.10 -21.6%

Away win 31.0% 28.2% 3.55 +10.1%

Over 2.5 51.9% 45.5% 2.20 +14.2%

Over 3.5 29.7% 25.0% 4.00 +18.8%

BTTS 55.4% 54.1% 1.85 +2.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 9.7%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 0–1 7.9%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bogota1.5

Orsomarso1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BOGOTA · PPG 1.00

ORSOMARSO · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Bogota (H) 43.7%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -10.4%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -21.6%

Orsomarso (A) 31.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bogota face Orsomarso in Colombia - Primera B on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bogota a 44% chance, the draw 25% and Orsomarso 31%, so Bogota are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Bogota and 1.2 for Orsomarso (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bogota are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.29 for Orsomarso. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.8%.

Bogota vs Orsomarso Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera B Predictions