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Defensa y J. vs T. de Cordoba Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Monday, April 13, 2026

Defensa y J.

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

T. de Cordoba

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.9% vs bookmaker-implied 34.7% — a clear edge.

+63.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-16.2%0-22.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.6%1-111.0%1-25.2%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.8%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.1%3-15.8%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-13.9%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.9% 34.7% 2.88 +63.9%

Draw 23.2% 37.3% 2.68 -37.8%

Away win 19.9% 34.7% 2.88 -42.7%

Over 2.5 51.4% 37.0% 2.70 +38.8%

Over 3.5 29.2% 18.2% 5.50 +60.6%

BTTS 51.0% 47.6% 2.10 +7.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -39.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.0%

H 57% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 11.6%

#2 1–1 11.0%

#3 2–0 10.3%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensa y J.1.8

T. de Cordoba0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.4% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSA Y J. · PPG 1.33

T. DE CORDOBA · PPG 1.33

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Defensa y J. (H) 56.9%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +63.9%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 2.68 · IMPLIED 37.3% EV -37.8%

T. de Cordoba (A) 19.9%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -42.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensa y J. face T. de Cordoba in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensa y J. a 57% chance, the draw 23% and T. de Cordoba 20%, so Defensa y J. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Defensa y J. and 0.9 for T. de Cordoba (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensa y J. are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.33 for T. de Cordoba. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +63.9%.

Defensa y J. vs T. de Cordoba Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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