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Beroe vs Lok. Plovdiv Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Monday, April 13, 2026

Beroe

PPG 0.79 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lok. Plovdiv

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 53.2% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+11.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-113.1%0-210.4%0-35.5%0-4+3.1%1 1-07.5%1-111.9%1-29.4%1-35.0%1-4+2.8%2 2-03.4%2-15.4%2-24.3%2-32.3%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.0%3-11.6%3-21.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.6% 30.3% 3.30 -28.7%

Draw 25.2% 31.3% 3.20 -19.4%

Away win 53.2% 47.6% 2.10 +11.7%

Over 2.5 45.4% 46.5% 2.15 -2.4%

Over 3.5 24.1% 25.3% 3.95 -4.8%

BTTS 47.5% 54.1% 1.85 -12.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 17%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob47.5%

A 53% / xG 0.9-1.6 / O2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 13.1%

#2 1–1 11.9%

#3 0–2 10.4%

#4 1–2 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Beroe0.9

Lok. Plovdiv1.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.4% · O3.5 PROB 24.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BEROE · PPG 0.79

LOK. PLOVDIV · PPG 1.21

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.79) vs Away AVERAGE (1.21)

Win probability 1X2

Beroe (H) 21.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -28.7%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -19.4%

Lok. Plovdiv (A) 53.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +11.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Beroe face Lok. Plovdiv in Bulgaria - First League on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Beroe a 22% chance, the draw 25% and Lok. Plovdiv 53%, so Lok. Plovdiv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Beroe and 1.6 for Lok. Plovdiv (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Beroe are averaging 0.79 points per game versus 1.21 for Lok. Plovdiv. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.7%.

Beroe vs Lok. Plovdiv Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bulgaria - First League Predictions