Beroe vs Lok. Plovdiv Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Bulgaria - First League Monday, April 13, 2026 —

Beroe PPG 0.79

VS PENDING

Lok. Plovdiv PPG 1.21

Away· +11.7% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Beroe face Lok. Plovdiv in Bulgaria - First League on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Beroe a 22% chance, the draw 25% and Lok. Plovdiv 53%, so Lok. Plovdiv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Beroe and 1.6 for Lok. Plovdiv (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Beroe are averaging 0.79 points per game versus 1.21 for Lok. Plovdiv. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.7%.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 21.6%

Odds: 3.30 EV: -28.7%

Draw 25.2%

Odds: 3.20 EV: -19.4%

Away 53.2%

Odds: 2.10 EV: +11.7%

Model lean: Away

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 45.4% Odds: 2.15 -2.4%

Over 3.5 24.1% Odds: 3.95 -4.8%

BTTS 47.5% Odds: 1.85 -12.1%

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-1

2nd 1-1

3rd 0-2

4th 1-2

5th 0-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Beroe

0.91

Lok. Plovdiv

1.58

Model SuggestionAway +11.7% ROI TRACKS: Away
Tracked ROI market: Away. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5/Under 33%

BTTS/No 33%

Score Hit 17%

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.79) vs Away AVERAGE (1.21)