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Wolfsburg W vs Nurnberg W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Regular Season - 26 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 12:00

Wolfsburg W

PPG 2.17 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Nurnberg W

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.0% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-10.8%0-20.5%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-02.6%1-13.1%1-21.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.3%2 2-04.9%2-15.9%2-23.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.1%3-17.4%3-24.5%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-015.6%4+-118.8%4+-211.4%4+-34.6%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.0% 92.6% 1.08 -23.3%

Draw 20.4% 12.5% 8.00 +37.9%

Away win 8.6% 5.3% 19.00 +38.0%

Over 2.5 79.0% 82.0% 1.22 -3.6%

Over 3.5 73.3% 65.4% 1.53 +12.2%

BTTS 62.5% 55.6% 1.80 +12.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 81%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)3.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.5%

H 71% / xG 3.8-1.2 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1✓ 7.4%

#2 4–1 7.0%

#3 3–0 6.1%

#4 2–1 5.9%

#5 4–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wolfsburg W3.8

Nurnberg W1.2

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.0% · O3.5 PROB 73.3%

Form & verdict PPG

WOLFSBURG W · PPG 2.17

NURNBERG W · PPG 0.75

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.17), Away POOR (0.75) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Wolfsburg W (H) 71.0%

ODDS 1.08 · IMPLIED 92.6% EV -23.3%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +37.9%

Nurnberg W (A) 8.6%

ODDS 19.00 · IMPLIED 5.3% EV +38.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wolfsburg W face Nurnberg W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wolfsburg W a 71% chance, the draw 20% and Nurnberg W 9%, so Wolfsburg W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for Wolfsburg W and 1.2 for Nurnberg W (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wolfsburg W are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.75 for Nurnberg W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +38.0%. This match finished 3-1.

Wolfsburg W vs Nurnberg W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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