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SGS Essen W vs Freiburg W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Regular Season - 26 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 12:00

SGS Essen W

PPG 0.67 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Freiburg W

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-15.5%0-26.7%0-35.5%0-4+6.0%1 1-03.0%1-17.4%1-29.1%1-37.4%1-4+8.1%2 2-02.0%2-15.0%2-26.1%2-35.0%2-4+5.5%3 3-00.9%3-12.3%3-22.8%3-32.3%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-11.0%4+-21.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.7% 33.3% 3.00 -20.9%

Draw 21.2% 28.2% 3.55 -14.8%

Away win 57.0% 48.8% 2.05 +16.9%

Over 2.5 63.9% 61.7% 1.62 +3.5%

Over 3.5 52.7% 40.0% 2.50 +31.8%

BTTS 62.2% 66.7% 1.50 -6.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob62.2%

A 57% / xG 1.4-2.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.1%

#2 1–1✓ 7.4%

#3 1–3 7.4%

#4 0–2 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SGS Essen W1.4

Freiburg W2.5

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 52.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SGS ESSEN W · PPG 0.67

FREIBURG W · PPG 0.83

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.67), Away POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

SGS Essen W (H) 21.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -20.9%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -14.8%

Freiburg W (A) 57.0%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +16.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

SGS Essen W face Freiburg W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SGS Essen W a 22% chance, the draw 21% and Freiburg W 57%, so Freiburg W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for SGS Essen W and 2.5 for Freiburg W (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SGS Essen W are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 0.83 for Freiburg W. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +31.8%. This match finished 1-1.

SGS Essen W vs Freiburg W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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