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Leverkusen W vs Werder Bremen W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Regular Season - 26 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 12:00

Leverkusen W

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Werder Bremen W

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-14.8%0-23.1%0-31.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-07.4%1-19.6%1-26.2%1-32.7%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.5%2-19.6%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.0%3-16.4%3-24.1%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-15.1%4+-23.3%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% 63.7% 1.57 -18.8%

Draw 24.0% 25.3% 3.95 -3.1%

Away win 24.3% 20.8% 4.80 +10.0%

Over 2.5 61.4% 65.4% 1.53 -6.1%

Over 3.5 41.8% 42.6% 2.35 -1.8%

BTTS 59.7% 64.5% 1.55 -7.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.7%

H 52% / xG 2.0-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.5%

#4 3–1 6.4%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leverkusen W2.0

Werder Bremen W1.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 41.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LEVERKUSEN W · PPG 2.00

WERDER BREMEN W · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=51.7%

Win probability 1X2

Leverkusen W (H) 51.7%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -18.8%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -3.1%

Werder Bremen W (A) 24.3%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +10.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leverkusen W face Werder Bremen W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leverkusen W a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Werder Bremen W 24%, so Leverkusen W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Leverkusen W and 1.3 for Werder Bremen W (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leverkusen W are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Werder Bremen W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 1-3.

Leverkusen W vs Werder Bremen W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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