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Hamburger SV W vs Bayern Munich W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Regular Season - 26 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 12:00

Hamburger SV W

PPG 0.50 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Bayern Munich W

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.0% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-13.0%0-26.8%0-310.2%0-4+40.1%1 1-00.3%1-11.5%1-23.4%1-35.1%1-4+20.0%2 2-00.1%2-10.4%2-20.8%2-31.3%2-4+5.0%3 3-00.0%3-10.1%3-20.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 9.5% 4.3% 23.00 +71.1%

Draw 18.7% 11.9% 8.40 +34.3%

Away win 71.8% 94.3% 1.06 -23.9%

Over 2.5 79.0% 80.0% 1.25 -1.3%

Over 3.5 73.7% 60.6% 1.65 +21.6%

BTTS 48.6% 47.6% 2.10 +2.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)4.5 BTTS prob48.6%

A 72% / xG 0.5-4.5 / O2.5 79% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–4 11.5%

#2 0–5 10.4%

#3 0–3 10.2%

#4 0–2 6.8%

#5 1–4 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hamburger SV W0.5

Bayern Munich W4.5

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.0% · O3.5 PROB 73.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMBURGER SV W · PPG 0.50

BAYERN MUNICH W · PPG 3.00

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Hamburger SV W (H) 9.5%

ODDS 23.00 · IMPLIED 4.3% EV +71.1%

Draw 18.7%

ODDS 8.40 · IMPLIED 11.9% EV +34.3%

Bayern Munich W (A) 71.8%

ODDS 1.06 · IMPLIED 94.3% EV -23.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hamburger SV W face Bayern Munich W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hamburger SV W a 10% chance, the draw 19% and Bayern Munich W 72%, so Bayern Munich W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Hamburger SV W and 4.5 for Bayern Munich W (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-4. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hamburger SV W are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 3.00 for Bayern Munich W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +71.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Hamburger SV W vs Bayern Munich W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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