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E. Frankfurt W vs Union Berlin W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Regular Season - 26 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 12:00

E. Frankfurt W

PPG 2.58 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Union Berlin W

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.7% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-11.5%0-21.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.3%1 1-03.2%1-14.7%1-23.5%1-31.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-04.9%2-17.3%2-25.4%2-32.6%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.1%3-17.6%3-25.6%3-32.7%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-112.7%4+-29.4%4+-34.6%4+-4+2.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.3% 76.9% 1.30 -22.9%

Draw 20.3% 20.0% 5.00 +0.9%

Away win 20.4% 12.9% 7.75 +34.9%

Over 2.5 71.7% 75.2% 1.33 -4.6%

Over 3.5 67.1% 55.6% 1.80 +20.8%

BTTS 63.0% 66.7% 1.50 -5.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.0%

H 59% / xG 3.1-1.5 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.6%

#2 2–1 7.3%

#3 4–1 5.9%

#4 3–2 5.6%

#5 1–1 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

E. Frankfurt W3.1

Union Berlin W1.5

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.7% · O3.5 PROB 67.1%

Form & verdict PPG

E. FRANKFURT W · PPG 2.58

UNION BERLIN W · PPG 1.25

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.58) vs P(Home)=59.3%

Win probability 1X2

E. Frankfurt W (H) 59.3%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -22.9%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +0.9%

Union Berlin W (A) 20.4%

ODDS 7.75 · IMPLIED 12.9% EV +34.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

E. Frankfurt W face Union Berlin W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives E. Frankfurt W a 59% chance, the draw 20% and Union Berlin W 20%, so E. Frankfurt W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for E. Frankfurt W and 1.5 for Union Berlin W (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, E. Frankfurt W are averaging 2.58 points per game versus 1.25 for Union Berlin W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +34.9%. This match finished 4-2.

E. Frankfurt W vs Union Berlin W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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