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CZ Jena W vs FC Koln W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Regular Season - 26 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 12:00

CZ Jena W

PPG 0.25 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

FC Koln W

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-17.4%0-28.4%0-36.4%0-4+6.1%1 1-03.8%1-18.5%1-29.7%1-37.3%1-4+7.1%2 2-02.2%2-14.9%2-25.6%2-34.2%2-4+4.1%3 3-00.8%3-11.9%3-22.1%3-31.6%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 19.8% 14.3% 7.00 +23.2%

Draw 21.8% 20.8% 4.80 +2.8%

Away win 58.4% 75.2% 1.33 -22.3%

Over 2.5 63.9% 69.0% 1.45 -7.3%

Over 3.5 44.6% 46.5% 2.15 -4.1%

BTTS 59.7% 59.9% 1.67 -0.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob59.7%

A 58% / xG 1.2-2.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.4%

#4 1–3 7.3%

#5 0–3✓ 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CZ Jena W1.2

FC Koln W2.3

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 44.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CZ JENA W · PPG 0.25

FC KOLN W · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.17) vs Home POOR (0.25)

Win probability 1X2

CZ Jena W (H) 19.8%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +23.2%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +2.8%

FC Koln W (A) 58.4%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -22.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

CZ Jena W face FC Koln W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CZ Jena W a 20% chance, the draw 22% and FC Koln W 58%, so FC Koln W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for CZ Jena W and 2.3 for FC Koln W (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CZ Jena W are averaging 0.25 points per game versus 1.17 for FC Koln W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +23.2%. This match finished 0-3.

CZ Jena W vs FC Koln W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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