Today / Croatia - First NL / Jarun vs Dubrava Zagreb

Jarun vs Dubrava Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 31 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 11:45

Jarun

PPG 1.57 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Dubrava Zagreb

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-19.9%0-24.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.0%1-112.9%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.8%2-18.4%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.2%3-13.6%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.9% 62.5% 1.60 -23.4%

Draw 27.8% 28.6% 3.50 -1.6%

Away win 24.3% 20.8% 4.80 +10.0%

Over 2.5 46.2% 51.3% 1.95 -9.9%

Over 3.5 17.3% 26.7% 3.75 -21.1%

BTTS 49.1% 51.3% 1.95 -4.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.1%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 11.5%

#3 1–0 15.0%

#4 2–0 9.8%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jarun1.3

Dubrava Zagreb0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.3%

Form & verdict PPG

JARUN · PPG 1.57

DUBRAVA ZAGREB · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.57) > Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Jarun (H) 47.9%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -23.4%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -1.6%

Dubrava Zagreb (A) 24.3%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +10.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jarun face Dubrava Zagreb in Croatia - First NL on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jarun a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Dubrava Zagreb 24%, so Jarun are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Jarun and 0.9 for Dubrava Zagreb (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jarun are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.86 for Dubrava Zagreb. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Jarun vs Dubrava Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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