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Ostersunds vs Sandviken Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Regular Season - 8 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 11:00

Ostersunds

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sandviken

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+19.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-14.9%0-22.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.2%1-19.8%1-25.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.5%3-16.6%3-23.9%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-15.2%4+-23.1%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% 51.3% 1.95 +0.8%

Draw 24.0% 29.4% 3.40 -11.0%

Away win 24.3% 26.7% 3.75 -5.3%

Over 2.5 61.4% 51.3% 1.95 +19.7%

Over 3.5 39.6% 29.9% 3.35 +32.7%

BTTS 59.7% 57.8% 1.73 +3.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.7%

H 52% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1✓ 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–0 8.2%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ostersunds2.0

Sandviken1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.6%

Form & verdict PPG

OSTERSUNDS · PPG 1.67

SANDVIKEN · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=51.7%

Win probability 1X2

Ostersunds (H) 51.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +0.8%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.0%

Sandviken (A) 24.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ostersunds face Sandviken in Sweden - Superettan on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ostersunds a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Sandviken 24%, so Ostersunds are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Ostersunds and 1.2 for Sandviken (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ostersunds are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.33 for Sandviken. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +32.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Ostersunds vs Sandviken Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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