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Pisa vs Napoli Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 10:00

Pisa

PPG 0.56 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Napoli

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWW

// Model verdict

Away 69% chance

Model probability 58.1% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-117.0%0-213.3%0-36.9%0-4+3.9%1 1-07.1%1-111.1%1-28.7%1-34.5%1-4+2.5%2 2-02.3%2-13.6%2-22.9%2-31.5%2-4+0.8%3 3-00.5%3-10.8%3-20.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.9% 12.0% 8.30 +14.2%

Draw 27.1% 21.1% 4.75 +17.2%

Away win 58.1% 74.1% 1.35 -21.6%

Over 2.5 46.2% 57.1% 1.75 -19.1%

Over 3.5 18.5% 34.7% 2.88 -28.0%

BTTS 48.6% 50.0% 2.00 -2.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob48.6%

A 58% / xG 0.7-1.6 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.0%

#2 0–2 13.3%

#3 1–1 11.1%

#4 0–0 10.9%

#5 1–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pisa0.7

Napoli1.6

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PISA · PPG 0.56

NAPOLI · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

69%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.67) vs Home POOR (0.56)

Win probability 1X2

Pisa (H) 14.9%

ODDS 8.30 · IMPLIED 12.0% EV +14.2%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +17.2%

Napoli (A) 58.1%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -21.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pisa face Napoli in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pisa a 15% chance, the draw 27% and Napoli 58%, so Napoli are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Pisa and 1.6 for Napoli (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pisa are averaging 0.56 points per game versus 1.67 for Napoli. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +17.2%. This match finished 0-3.

Pisa vs Napoli Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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