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Juventus vs Fiorentina Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Regular Season - 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 10:00

Juventus

PPG 2.06 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Fiorentina

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 76.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-15.9%0-22.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.8%1-110.5%1-23.7%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.2%2-19.3%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.8%3-15.5%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-13.7%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 76.3% 1.31 -29.6%

Draw 24.9% 19.0% 5.25 +18.4%

Away win 21.4% 11.6% 8.60 +50.4%

Over 2.5 47.6% 62.5% 1.60 -23.8%

Over 3.5 23.9% 40.8% 2.45 -24.9%

BTTS 49.0% 51.8% 1.93 -5.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.0%

H 54% / xG 1.8-0.7 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.8%

#2 2–0 13.2%

#3 1–1 10.5%

#4 0–0 8.3%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juventus1.8

Fiorentina0.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.9%

Form & verdict PPG

JUVENTUS · PPG 2.06

FIORENTINA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs P(Home)=53.7%

Win probability 1X2

Juventus (H) 53.7%

ODDS 1.31 · IMPLIED 76.3% EV -29.6%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +18.4%

Fiorentina (A) 21.4%

ODDS 8.60 · IMPLIED 11.6% EV +50.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juventus face Fiorentina in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juventus a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Fiorentina 21%, so Juventus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Juventus and 0.7 for Fiorentina (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juventus are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.00 for Fiorentina. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +50.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Juventus vs Fiorentina Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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