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Genoa vs AC Milan Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 10:00

Genoa

PPG 1.22 · HOME

LAST 5

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1 – 2

FULL TIME

AC Milan

PPG 1.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

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Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.8%0-115.1%0-29.7%0-34.1%0-4+1.7%1 1-010.1%1-112.9%1-28.3%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-04.3%2-15.5%2-23.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.2%3-11.6%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.1% 21.7% 4.60 +17.6%

Draw 29.1% 27.0% 3.70 +4.6%

Away win 42.9% 58.5% 1.71 -26.6%

Over 2.5 46.2% 51.3% 1.95 -9.9%

Over 3.5 16.8% 29.4% 3.40 -25.7%

BTTS 48.9% 54.1% 1.85 -9.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob48.9%

A 43% / xG 0.9-1.3 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 11.8%

#3 0–1 15.1%

#4 0–2 9.7%

#5 1–2✓ 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Genoa0.9

AC Milan1.3

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GENOA · PPG 1.22

AC MILAN · PPG 1.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

49%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.94) vs Home AVERAGE (1.22)

Win probability 1X2

Genoa (H) 28.1%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +17.6%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +4.6%

AC Milan (A) 42.9%

ODDS 1.71 · IMPLIED 58.5% EV -26.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Genoa face AC Milan in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Genoa a 28% chance, the draw 29% and AC Milan 43%, so AC Milan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Genoa and 1.3 for AC Milan (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Genoa are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 1.94 for AC Milan. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +17.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Genoa vs AC Milan Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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