Como vs Parma Prediction & Tips

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Italy - Serie A Regular Season - 37 Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia· Como Sunday, May 17, 2026 10:00

Como PPG 1.83

1-0 HIT MostLikelyScore

Parma PPG 1.33

Away· +58.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 54.1%

Odds: 1.28 EV: -30.8%

Draw 26.7%

Odds: 5.20 EV: +23.3%

Away 19.2%

Odds: 10.25 EV: +58.1%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 46.2% Odds: 1.62 -25.2%

Over 3.5 16.4% Odds: 2.55 -34.9%

BTTS 46.2% Odds: 2.15 -0.7%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✔

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 1-1 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Como

1.56

Parma

0.55

Model SuggestionHome -30.8% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -30.8% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+58.1%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5/Under 55%

BTTS/No 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -26.7%

Bet Hit 40% (10 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.83) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)