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Como vs Parma Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Regular Season - 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 10:00

Como

PPG 1.83 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Parma

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.1% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-16.6%0-21.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.9%1-110.4%1-22.8%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.8%2-18.1%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.7%3-14.2%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-12.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.1% 78.1% 1.28 -30.8%

Draw 26.7% 19.2% 5.20 +23.3%

Away win 19.2% 9.8% 10.25 +58.1%

Over 2.5 46.2% 61.7% 1.62 -25.2%

Over 3.5 16.4% 39.2% 2.55 -34.9%

BTTS 46.2% 46.5% 2.15 -0.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.2%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.5 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 18.9%

#2 2–0 14.8%

#3 0–0 12.1%

#4 1–1 10.4%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Como1.6

Parma0.5

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.4%

Form & verdict PPG

COMO · PPG 1.83

PARMA · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.83) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Como (H) 54.1%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -30.8%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +23.3%

Parma (A) 19.2%

ODDS 10.25 · IMPLIED 9.8% EV +58.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Como face Parma in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Como a 54% chance, the draw 27% and Parma 19%, so Como are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Como and 0.5 for Parma (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Como are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.33 for Parma. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +58.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Como vs Parma Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie A Predictions