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Udinese vs Lazio Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 3 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 18:45

Udinese

PPG 1.26 · HOME

LAST 5

DW ···

UPCOMING

Lazio

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-111.7%0-26.4%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.3%1-113.4%1-27.3%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.0%2-17.6%2-24.1%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.7%3-12.9%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 35.7% 2.80 +1.9%

Draw 28.0% 33.3% 3.00 -9.6%

Away win 35.5% 40.0% 2.50 -11.3%

Over 2.5 43.7% 43.5% 2.30 +0.5%

Over 3.5 24.5% 23.1% 4.33 +3.6%

BTTS 49.9% 51.3% 1.95 -2.7%

Home O1.5 31.2% 33.3% 3.00 -6.4%

Away O1.5 33.0% 36.4% 2.75 -9.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.9%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 10.8%

#3 1–0 12.3%

#4 0–1 11.7%

#5 1–2 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Udinese1.1

Lazio1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.7% · O3.5 PROB 24.5%

Form & verdict PPG

UDINESE · PPG 1.26

LAZIO · PPG 1.62

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

50%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.05, combined xG 2.23 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Udinese (H) 36.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +1.9%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -9.6%

Lazio (A) 35.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Udinese face Lazio in Italy - Serie A on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Udinese a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Lazio 36%, so Udinese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Udinese and 1.1 for Lazio (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Udinese are averaging 1.26 points per game versus 1.62 for Lazio. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +15.7%.

Udinese vs Lazio Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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