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Cagliari vs Lecce Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 3 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 16:30

Cagliari

PPG 1.15 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

UPCOMING

Lecce

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

WL ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-110.7%0-25.4%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.1%1-113.2%1-26.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.1%2-18.2%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.3%3-13.4%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 51.3% 1.95 -15.4%

Draw 27.6% 32.3% 3.10 -8.7%

Away win 28.9% 25.6% 3.90 +7.6%

Over 2.5 43.3% 42.0% 2.38 +3.0%

Over 3.5 24.5% 22.2% 4.50 +6.2%

BTTS 49.1% 48.8% 2.05 +0.7%

Home O1.5 34.3% 44.4% 2.25 -22.8%

Away O1.5 30.9% 23.1% 4.33 +33.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.1%

H 43% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 1–0 13.1%

#3 0–0 10.6%

#4 2–1 8.2%

#5 0–1 10.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cagliari1.2

Lecce1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.3% · O3.5 PROB 24.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CAGLIARI · PPG 1.15

LECCE · PPG 1.45

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

49%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.23, combined xG 2.24 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cagliari (H) 43.4%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -15.4%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.7%

Lecce (A) 28.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cagliari face Lecce in Italy - Serie A on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cagliari a 43% chance, the draw 28% and Lecce 29%, so Cagliari are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Cagliari and 1.0 for Lecce (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cagliari are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 1.45 for Lecce. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +38.3%.

Cagliari vs Lecce Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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