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AS Roma vs Lazio Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Regular Season - 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 10:00

AS Roma

PPG 2.17 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Lazio

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.0%0-110.0%0-23.3%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.5%1-112.3%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.3%2-17.6%2-22.5%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.6%3-13.1%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 66.7% 1.50 -25.4%

Draw 28.3% 24.4% 4.10 +9.6%

Away win 22.0% 16.1% 6.20 +21.8%

Over 2.5 35.0% 54.1% 1.85 -35.3%

Over 3.5 12.5% 31.3% 3.20 -36.0%

BTTS 46.8% 51.3% 1.95 -8.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.8%

H 50% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.0%

#2 1–0 18.5%

#3 1–1 12.3%

#4 2–0✓ 11.3%

#5 0–1 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AS Roma1.2

Lazio0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AS ROMA · PPG 2.17

LAZIO · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=49.7%

Win probability 1X2

AS Roma (H) 49.7%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -25.4%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +9.6%

Lazio (A) 22.0%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

AS Roma face Lazio in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AS Roma a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Lazio 22%, so AS Roma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for AS Roma and 0.7 for Lazio (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AS Roma are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.33 for Lazio. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.8%. This match finished 2-0.

AS Roma vs Lazio Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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