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Italy - Serie A logo Italy flag Italy - Serie A Regular Season - 37 Stadio Olimpico· Rome Sunday, May 17, 2026 10:00
AS Roma logo AS Roma PPG 2.17
2-0 HIT CS4
Lazio logo Lazio PPG 1.33
Away· +21.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 49.7%
Odds: 1.50 EV: -25.4%
Draw 28.3%
Odds: 4.10 EV: +9.6%
Away 22.0%
Odds: 6.20 EV: +21.8%
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 35.0% Odds: 1.85 -35.3%
Over 3.5 12.5% Odds: 3.20 -36.0%
BTTS 46.8% Odds: 1.95 -8.7%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-0
2nd 1-0
3rd 1-1
4th 2-0
5th 0-1

Expected Goals (xG)

AS Roma
1.23
Lazio
0.67

Model Suggestion

No Bet NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%
O2.5/Under 55%
BTTS/No 47%
Score Hit 53%
ROI -26.7%
Bet Hit 40% (10 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=49.7%

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