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Italy - Serie A
Regular Season - 37
Stadio Olimpico· Rome
Sunday, May 17, 2026
10:00
AS Roma
PPG 2.17
2-0
HIT CS4
Lazio
PPG 1.33
Away· +21.8%
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
49.7%
Odds: 1.50
EV: -25.4%
Draw
28.3%
Odds: 4.10
EV: +9.6%
Away
22.0%
Odds: 6.20
EV: +21.8%
Result: Home ✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
35.0%
Odds: 1.85
-35.3%
Over 3.5
12.5%
Odds: 3.20
-36.0%
BTTS
46.8%
Odds: 1.95
-8.7%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔
BTTS NO → NO ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st
0-0
✘
2nd
1-0
✘
3rd
1-1
✘
4th
2-0
✔
5th
0-1
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
AS Roma
1.23
Lazio
0.67
Model Suggestion
No Bet
NO VALUE BET
Model lean:
No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.
League Track Record
↗
Based on 60 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc
42%
O2.5/Under
55%
BTTS/No
47%
Score Hit
53%
ROI
-26.7%
Bet Hit
40%
(10 bets)
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=49.7%