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Vorskla Poltava vs M. Kharkiv Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Regular Season - 28 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 09:00

Vorskla Poltava

PPG 1.31 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

M. Kharkiv

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.7%0-114.4%0-25.9%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-016.3%1-113.2%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.5%2-16.1%2-22.5%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.3%3-11.9%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.5% 30.3% 3.30 +23.8%

Draw 35.2% 35.7% 2.80 -1.4%

Away win 27.2% 47.6% 2.10 -25.7%

Over 2.5 35.0% 45.2% 2.21 -22.7%

Over 3.5 9.8% 25.1% 3.98 -36.6%

BTTS 46.2% 54.1% 1.85 -14.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.2%

H 38% / xG 0.9-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.7%

#2 1–1✓ 13.2%

#3 1–0 16.3%

#4 0–1 14.4%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vorskla Poltava0.9

M. Kharkiv0.8

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 9.8%

Form & verdict PPG

VORSKLA POLTAVA · PPG 1.31

M. KHARKIV · PPG 1.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.31), Away AVERAGE (1.08)

Win probability 1X2

Vorskla Poltava (H) 37.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +23.8%

Draw 35.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -1.4%

M. Kharkiv (A) 27.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -25.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vorskla Poltava face M. Kharkiv in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vorskla Poltava a 38% chance, the draw 35% and M. Kharkiv 27%, so Vorskla Poltava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Vorskla Poltava and 0.8 for M. Kharkiv (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.08 for M. Kharkiv. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +23.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Vorskla Poltava vs M. Kharkiv Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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