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H. Verona U20 vs Napoli U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Regular Season - 36 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 09:00

H. Verona U20

PPG 1.59 · HOME

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Napoli U20

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.59) > Away POOR (0.88)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-18.0%0-24.4%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.2%1-112.2%1-26.7%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.2%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.3%3-14.7%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 61.7% 1.62 -26.8%

Draw 29.3% 28.2% 3.55 +4.0%

Away win 25.5% 21.7% 4.60 +17.3%

Over 2.5 48.3% 56.5% 1.77 -14.5%

Over 3.5 26.5% — — —

BTTS 53.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -28.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.7%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 11.2%

#3 2–1 9.2%

#4 0–0 7.4%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

H. Verona U201.5

Napoli U201.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.3% · O3.5 PROB 26.5%

Form & verdict PPG

H. VERONA U20 · PPG 1.59

NAPOLI U20 · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.59) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

H. Verona U20 (H) 45.2%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -26.8%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +4.0%

Napoli U20 (A) 25.5%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +17.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

H. Verona U20 face Napoli U20 in Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives H. Verona U20 a 45% chance, the draw 29% and Napoli U20 26%, so H. Verona U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for H. Verona U20 and 1.1 for Napoli U20 (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, H. Verona U20 are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 0.88 for Napoli U20. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.3%. This match finished 5-2.

H. Verona U20 vs Napoli U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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